The 2023 Pirates draft pick we hope to see rebound in 2026
The 2023 draft delivered the Pittsburgh Pirates what currently looks like a once-in-a-generation talent with Paul Skenes. They had the first overall selection, and we’re glad they made the right choice. The 2023 draft as a whole was very pitching-heavy, as is common with Ben Cherington’s drafts. Only four of the Pirates’ 20 draft picks they signed were position players. Skenes wasn’t the only draft pick from 2023 who hit the ground running. Carlson Reed looked very promising in 2024, but had a setback in 2025 with a back injury.
Reed was their fourth round pick out of West Virginia University. In 108 innings, Reed owned a 1.99 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP between A-Ball Bradenton and High-A Greensboro. Reed struck out nearly 30% of opponents with a 29.7% K%, and induced a ground ball 50.6% of the time. His ability to keep the ball in the dirt helped him maintain a 0.41 HR/9 ratio. His 11.7% walk rate may not wow anyone, but overall it was a very impressive season.
It’s even more impressive once you consider the sort of pitcher he was coming out of college. Reed was never used as a fulltime starter with the Mountaineers. The most innings he ever pitched in a single college season was 40.1, and the most games he ever started was seven. During 2023, Reed served as a late-inning arm for WVU, appearing out of the bullpen for all 25 of his appearances, recording seven saves, a 2.61 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate, and a 14.5% walk rate.
Going from a college reliever to a legitimate starting pitching prospect in the minor leagues in one year led to Reed having some real expectations going into 2025. Baseball America even ranked him as the Bucs’ 16th best prospect at the time. Unfortunately, at the beginning of the 2025 the right-hander was suffering from pinching back pain, which led to a 60-day IL stint.
Reed logged 70.1 innings in 2025, finishing with a 4.08 ERA, 5.05 FIP, and 1.43 WHIP in an injury-shortened season. While his command wavered at times—most notably with a 17.3% walk rate—and his strikeout percentage dipped to 21.2%, there were still encouraging signs. He limited damage effectively, allowing just 0.76 HR/9, and continued to show the ability to manage contact despite a lower-than-usual 43.6% ground-ball rate.
Importantly, context matters. Reed just turned 23 in November and showed toughness by returning quickly from a painful back injury that likely contributed to his uneven performance and late start to the season. Given what he’s already shown when healthy, 2025 looks more like an outlier than a true step back. If Reed enters next season fully healthy and closer to his 2024 form, he has a strong chance to reestablish himself as a high-end pitching prospect within the Pirates’ talent-rich system.
