When the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Henry Davis first overall in 2021, they were hoping they were getting a future middle of the order slugger. After all, he came out of Louisville as a power-hitting backstop, and proceeded to tear up minor league pitching. Unfortunately, he has yet to provide much hitting at the Major League level, with a career .181/.262/.294 triple-slash, a 28.8% strikeout percentage, and a 53 wRC+ over 660 plate appearances.
2025 marked the most playing time Davis has received in MLB in one season, and he still turned in a .512 OPS, .229 wOBA, and a 41 wRC+ in 283 trips to the plate. However, there is one important stat that shows Davis still has something in the tank, and why he shouldn’t be given up on yet.
That stat is expected weighted on base average on contact, or xwOBACON. FanGraphs describes wOBACON as “it’s how much damage a batter does when actually making contact.” xwOBACON is similar to xwOBA, xBA, xSLG where it shows what it would be based solely on batted ball metrics. In 2023 Davis was below-average at .347, and well below average in 2024 at .283.
However, in 2025, he put up a .366 xwOBACON when league average is .367. Meanwhile, his wOBACON was nearly 100 points lower, coming in at .267. That shows there’s a huge discrepancy between what he did and what he is capable of doing, and some bad luck playing a role in his numbers and the large difference. That .366 mark also puts him in territory of some very solid hitters. Davis’ xwOBACON was a few ticks higher than the likes of Jackson Chourio, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, and William Contreras, along with just a few points behind Vinnie Pasquantino, Jeremy Pena, and Alejandro Kirk.
The one important thing to note is that FanGraphs said it measures how much damage a batter does when they make contact. Davis still has trouble keeping his whiff rate down, and had an underwhelming 28.9% mark last season. His chase rate also ballooned from 29.4% in 2024 to 34.5% in 2025.
While there’s still work to be done, this is a massive step in the right direction for Davis. Making significantly more quality contact could be what helps him breakout in 2026. He may still need to make more contact, but if he is able to improve this part of his game, along with making major improvements defensively, who’s to say this isn’t the next thing he gets dramatically better at this upcoming season?
