The Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen is mostly set for the 2026 campaign. Dennis Santana is returning as the Bucs’ closer, with a strong supporting cast of relievers behind him. However, his set-up man, Justin Lawrence could end up being just as valuable as Santana this season. The right-hander flashed more than enough potential in 2025 to be a late-inning, high-leverage arm for the Bucs.
Lawrence only pitched 17.2 innings with the Pirates last season. He missed most of the year with elbow inflammation problems. When he was taking the mound, Lawrence was flat out dominant. He allowed just a single earned run to score, while getting 23 batters to strikeout. He walked eight, and held opposing batters to an exit velocity clocking in at a lowly 86.2 MPH. Not only did he fool batters plenty of times, as indicated by his 28.6% chase rate, but they struggled to make contact against him, with a 29.5% whiff percentage.
Calling Lawrence the Pirates’ most valuable relief arm in 2026 after a strong, but small sample size of less than 20 innings may sound like jumping the gun. But there are other reasons to believe he can be a dominant force out of the pen for the Pirates. One of the biggest reasons is his stuff. FanGraphs’ Stuff+ pinned him at a 107 mark last year. For reference, both Paul Skenes and former Pirates closer David Bednar both also had a 107 Stuff+ last year.
Lawrence grades out so highly in the eyes of Stuff+ because he throws hard from a low arm slot. His sinker averaged out at 95 MPH last year, and topped out at 96.8. He did that from a -1 degree arm angle. No other pitcher had an arm angle below zero degrees and threw a sinker that averaged 90+ MPH. The next closest was Arizona Diamondback right-hander Ryan Thompson, whose sinker averaged 89.7 MPH.
Another positive is that he won’t be pitching in Coors Field. Prior to joining the Pirates, Lawrence spent his entire career with the Colorado Rockies. While the high altitude and thin atmosphere makes flyballs fly further, it also affects pitch movement. Giving him a full season pitching outside of Coors Field should help him a ton, and give him a better feel for his pitch mix.
Lawrence will likely open the year as one of the Pirates’ set-up man options. However, he has experience as a closer. He saved 11 games for the Rockies in 2023. That, along with pitch quality that would play in the 9th inning, makes him a quality fallback option if Santana struggles next year.
Lawrence is entering the 2026 campaign as one of the Pirates’ most under-the-radar pitchers in the bullpen. He arguably has the highest ceiling of any of their relief arms currently on their depth chart, with the only potential exception being Carmen Mlodzinski. It should not be a shock if he eventually found himself effectively closing games for the Pirates in 2026.
