With pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training in the coming days, another offseason checkpoint has been reached. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA is a decades-old simulation model that has become a benchmarking tool for many in the baseball media and analytics industry.
The first edition of PECOTA arrived on February 10 and projected the Pittsburgh Pirates to win 79 games, good enough for third in the National League Central and a 28% chance of making the postseason. This model is a tad lower on the Pirates than the other major industry model run by FanGraphs, which projected the Pirates for 82 wins and 35% postseason odds.
The Pirates’ offseason has included bolstering a lineup that was simply not good enough to win games last season, and PECOTA seems to agree with most fans and analysts that the additions will improve the team in 2026. As more injury news is announced by teams (looking at you Braves and Mets) the model will adjust a bit, and there are plenty of other targets for the Pirates to add that could potentially inch this number closer to the .500 mark.
For those who may be a bit more apprehensive when it comes to simulation models, especially for a sport like baseball, PECOTA is not perfect. It has routinely underrated teams like the Brewers and overrated teams like the Braves. Last year especially saw wild fluctuations with expected and delivered performance, with the Orioles, Rangers, Red Sox, and Braves all underperforming their simulations by over 10 games.
How accurately has PECOTA projected the Pirates under General Manager Ben Cherington’s roster build? Outside of Cherington’s first season with his semi-inherinted roster, fairly well.
2026 Projection: 79, Actual: ??
2025 Projection: 75, Actual: 71
2024 Projection: 73, Actual: 76
2023 Projection: 70, Actual: 76
2022 Projection: 68, Actual: 62
2021 Projection: 61, Actual: 61
2020 - Not included due to shortened, high variance season
2019 Projection: 81, Actual: 69
Does this mean it’s set in stone that the Pirates are destined to be one of the several middling teams in baseball this year? Absolutely not. What this does seem to indicate is that the Pirates roster, as currently constructed, is the best simulated roster Cherington has compiled for the club. That is certainly interesting and exciting.
