For most publications, power rankings are low-effort engagement bait. They’re reactionary, vibes-based, and often say more about last week’s headlines than a team’s actual outlook. Usually, a new set of power rankings isn’t worth much more than a scroll. FanGraphs is different.
Rather than leaning on offseason buzz or narrative momentum, FanGraphs builds its power rankings directly from projection systems. Every team gets a projected record based on underlying models, and those records are then ranked accordingly.
And, for the first time in recent memory, that math likes the Pirates. In FanGraphs’ 2026 power rankings, the Pirates come in at 14th, projected for 82 wins and carrying 35.6% playoff odds. To put that in perspective, FanGraphs ranked the Pirates 22nd, 25th, and 24th over the past three seasons, with even worse placements before that. Now, they’re projected ahead of teams like the Astros, Diamondbacks, and Padres.
For a franchise that hasn’t reached the postseason since 2015, that’s a seismic shift. So why do the models suddenly love the Pirates—and how much should we trust it?
The Pitching Staff Is Doing a Lot of the Heavy Lifting
The first thing that jumps out in the projections is the respect given to the Pirates’ pitching staff.
It is important to remember that projection models are extremely conservative. They are not built to project best-case or worst-case outcomes, but rather a realistic median season. With that in mind, a projected 5 WAR, 2.75 ERA season for Paul Skenes is far from disrespectful. For comparison, reigning World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto is projected for 4.1 WAR and a 3.31 ERA.
And it’s not just Skenes. Braxton Ashcraft and Carmen Mlodzinski are both projected to have strong seasons as swingmen, with ERAs in the mid-3s. Mitch Keller and Jared Jones are projected to be reliable starters with ERAs just north of 4.00—numbers that projection systems generally view as solidly above replacement.
None of this should surprise Pirates fans. The pitching staff was good last year, too. The problem was that it didn’t translate into wins. Which raises the obvious question: what do the projection systems see in this lineup that gets the Pirates to a playoff-caliber record?
The Offense Is Better—But That Still Doesn’t Explain Everything
There is legitimate optimism baked into the lineup projections.
One model projects Konnor Griffin for 128 games and 3.5 WAR as a rookie. Notably, that value is not dependent on him being an impact bat right away. Instead, the model sees league-average offense paired with strong defense and elite baserunning. That matters, because it leaves real upside if the bat develops faster than expected.
The offseason acquisitions also help. Multiple additions are projected as above-average offensive contributors, lengthening the lineup in a way it hasn’t been in recent seasons. Brandon Lowe is the clearest example, projected to push close to 30 home runs over a full season.
Still, when you zoom out, something doesn’t fully add up.
The Pirates are ranked by projected record, and FanGraphs includes projected total WAR for both pitching and hitting. The Pirates’ pitching staff checks in at 16.6 WAR, which is strong. The lineup, however, sits at 18.7 WAR, a fairly middling number. Meanwhile, the Reds project for more WAR on both offense and pitching, yet they carry lower playoff odds (19.9%) and a worse projected record (79–83).
So how does that happen?
WAR vs. BaseRuns: Why the Pirates “Combine Better”
I had the same question, so I asked FanGraphs senior writer Ben Clemens directly. His explanation centered on something FanGraphs does after WAR enters the picture.
As Clemens explained, FanGraphs actually offers an option to calculate playoff odds based purely on WAR, and in that version, “the Reds are slightly ahead of the Pirates.” The difference comes from what happens next.
FanGraphs does not build team projections strictly by adding up WAR totals. Instead, as Clemens put it, they take “individual projections, on a per-outcome basis—strikeouts, walks, steals, home runs, etc.—and aggregate them into runs scored and runs allowed via the BaseRuns formula.” WAR, in his words, is “a pretty big dimension reduction,” turning everything into a single, context-neutral win value. BaseRuns, on the other hand, “does a better job of putting the team together and seeing how those outcomes often translate into run scoring.”
That distinction matters. At the team level, baseball is not perfectly linear. Two teams with similar WAR totals can produce very different run environments depending on how often they cluster hits, avoid empty baserunners, prevent big innings, and convert opportunities into actual runs. WAR treats those outcomes the same. BaseRuns does not.
By modeling teams “a little more specifically than just WAR,” Clemens said, FanGraphs believes BaseRuns does a better job translating talent into expected runs—and, ultimately, wins.
And in this case, the conclusion was simple:
“We think the Pirates combine better than the Reds.”
What This Actually Means for the Pirates
This doesn’t mean the Pirates have more raw talent than the Reds, or that WAR is flawed. It means that given the current roster construction—pitching, defense, baserunning, and offensive distribution—the Pirates are projected to turn their underlying outcomes into runs more efficiently. That efficiency shows up in BaseRuns. And BaseRuns is what FanGraphs uses to convert projections into wins.
For a fanbase that has gone nearly a decade without playoff baseball, that distinction matters. The optimism here should be deeper than vibes and offseason buzz, it can be built on how the roster fits together on the field.
