When the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Seth Hernandez sixth overall in the 2025 draft, they expected him to become a very talented pitcher. Hernandez received nothing but praise heading into the draft. Many considered him one of, if not the best, high school pitchers ever to enter the draft, and he was compared to former All-Stars like Josh Beckett. However, even with all that talent, it was hard to expect him to rise up prospect rankings as fast as he has.
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Heading into the 2026 campaign, Hernandez was generally considered a top 50 prospect in the sport. Baseball America ranked him as their 38th-best prospect. However, in their most recent update, Hernandez moved up to 10th place on their top 100 list.
There’s no doubt Hernandez deserves the bump in rankings. The young right-hander has done nothing but mow down A-Ball batters at Bradenton. In 22 innings, Hernandez owns a 1.23 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and 2.21 FIP. He has only allowed ten hits and two home runs so far. Hernandez has not walked very many batters, with just a 7.3% BB%. Opponents are struggling to make contact against Hernandez, and that’s putting it lightly. Hernandez has struck out 50% of the batters he has faced so far this year, and his whiff rate comes in at 51.7%. When opponents have made contact against Hernandez, they only have a 5.9% barrel rate.
Hernandez’s performance isn’t the only reason he has risen so far up prospect rankings. The right-hander has displayed control over all four pitches in his arsenal. His fastball sits in the upper-90s and has topped out at 100.5 MPH. Hernandez’s four-seamer also has above-average induced vertical break. Hernandez’s upper-80s slider has induced an awe-inspiring 70% whiff rate so far this year. It’s not his only near-unhittable breaking ball, as his low-80s curveball has an even higher 73.7% whiff rate. Arguably, Hernandez’s best secondary offering is his mid-80s change-up. Even though Hernandez already has well-above-average velocity, it looks even faster out of the hand, given his 7.2 average feet on extension off the mound. While his fastball sits at 97.2 MPH on the gun, it reaches the plate like a 98.6 MPH pitch.
Hernandez is only going to continue to climb BA’s top 100 prospect list. Three prospects among their top ten are in the Major Leagues. Payton Tolle of the Boston Red Sox (#8), 2025 Toronto Blue Jays’ Postseason hero Trey Yesavage (#7), and the Pirates’ own Konnor Griffin (#1) are all in the Major Leagues and are more than likely here to stay. One reason Hernandez moved up the rankings is that Kevin McGonigle (#2), JJ Wetherholt (#3), Connelly Early (#33), and Owen Caissie (#37) all graduated from prospect status. Of course, given his current performance, he will reach High-A Greensboro very soon. Continuing to dominate will only move him up prospect lists.
Hernandez could very well be the best pitching prospect in the sport per BA’s rankings by the end of May, as only Yesavage and Tolle are the only hurlers who rank ahead of him. With his current level of dominance, becoming baseball’s consensus number one prospect is not out of the question. He has already become a top ten prospect just over a month into the year, so rising nine spots over the next 2-3 months is very possible.
