Before the season started, I provided a checklist of five things that needed to happen for the Pirates to make the playoffs. I checked in on these goals about a quarter of the way through the season, and the Buccos were on track to achieve all those goals, to varying degrees of success. Now, at the All-Star Break, the Bucs are a few games out of the Wild Card, but right in the thick of things. Let’s determine what needs to happen in the second half of the season to ensure the Bucs are competitive through September.
1) A Clean(er) Bill of Health
While this isn’t something that is in the team’s control, it is arguably the most important factor throughout the rest of the season. The Buccos have experienced some devastating injuries to many of their best players throughout the year, whether it was Ryan O’Hearn missing a month, Jared Jones getting a late start due to Tommy John rehab, or Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz, Endy Rodriguez, and Spencer Horwitz all occupying the IL as the team went into the break. Fortunately, the lineup has had some heroic performances from Esmerlyn Valdez, Nick Gonzales, and Jake Mangum to anchor the best offense in all of MLB, but it would be irrational to ask those guys to continue putting up the same numbers (although it isn’t impossible).
While Horwitz and Cruz look to be back soon, Griffin and key bullpen piece Evan Sisk are going to be out a while. This team would have a hard time absorbing any more injuries, and while the lineup is deep, injuries pile up fast. On top of this, the Pirates have not had a start missed due to injury all year if you count Carmen Mlodzinski’s fill-in for Jones to begin the season, and the rotation has still taken a step back from last year. If the Bucs want to hang around into October, then they need to avoid some more catastrophic injuries.
2) June and July Bounce-backs Must Continue
Through the early parts of the season, the Pirates had two glaring holes in their lineup. Marcell Ozuna looked like an absolute zero at DH, and the catching position was absolutely dreadful. While Henry Davis and Ozuna’s season numbers still don’t look great, they both have quietly been more than serviceable since the start of June.
Ozuna has been in the lineup only sparingly, but when he has been, he’s looked more and more like the Marcell Ozuna the Pirates thought they were getting. In a platoon-heavy role, Ozuna has smacked the ball around to the tune of a .787 OPS, a mark which is far above the major league average. This has included three home runs and some big games, capped off by a great day in the 14-5 rout of the Brewers on the final day of the first half.
Davis has been even better. After being basically the worst hitter in the MLB up to the start of June, Hank has refined his plate approach and found his swing, quietly putting up an .854 OPS. This has been fueled by eight free passes and six extra base hits. This breakout from Davis could not have come at a better time – Endy Rodriguez had looked as though he had taken the reins for the starting catcher job, but then got injured. With this Davis resurgence, suddenly, it looks like the Bucs might not need to be in the market for a catcher at the trade deadline – a realization which would have been shocking just a couple months ago.
Maybe these are simply hot stretches, or maybe they are signs of what is to come. Regardless, the fact that the Bucs have gotten contributions from these two is why their lineup has scored the most runs in the league despite nonstop injuries.
3) The Bullpen Needs to Be Better
As of July 16th, the Pirates bullpen has mediocre numbers overall. A 4.49 ERA places them at 22nd in the league, but it feels worse than that. It’s probably because basically every member of the bullpen has been lackluster, with no real standouts. Evan Sisk would have been the exception to that, but it looks like he is going to be on the shelf for a while. Mason Montgomery, Gregory Soto, and Yohan Ramirez have flashed some good stuff, but none of them have an ERA below 3.30. Carmen Mlodzinski has been fantastic out of the pen, but he is only used once or twice a week in a scheduled bulk role.
The Bucs have made their first move in an attempt to remedy this pen, trading for lefty Brandon Eisert from the White Sox. While Eisert is serviceable, he is far from the only move that needs to be made. Ben Cherington has said the front office plans to be aggressive in targeting relievers at the deadline, so more moves are expected.
However, there also needs to be improvement from within. Dennis Santana’s regression has been shocking. Isaac Mattson has been up and down from AAA, and hasn’t looked like himself. Antwone Kelly, Wilber Dotel, and Brandan Bidois have all had short stints and looked bad to different degrees. Some of these guys need to put it together, or else the Bucs are going to struggle to make up ground in this Wild Card race.
4) Bubba Chandler and Jared Jones Must be Anchors
These two flamethrowers have had very different paths in their career, but interestingly enough, feel like they’re in about the same place going into the second half.
Chandler started off this season rough. The top prospect put up a 5.84 ERA in April, and at the beginning of June, his season ERA was at a rough 5.05. He strung together some good starts to get it down to the low 4’s, but then had two tough outings against the Phillies and the Nationals to balloon it back to the 4.80’s. Chandler has flashed excellent stuff, but has struggled to find the zone, walking over 5 batters per nine innings. In fact, he leads the entirety of the major leagues in walks. For the most part, he hasn’t had many huge blowup outings, but when he’s consistently going only four or five innings and allowing multiple runs, it is putting a great amount of stress on a mediocre bullpen. For this reason, the Bucs are just 7-12 in games Chandler starts, which simply cannot continue going forward.
Jared Jones’s season stats through his 8 starts aren’t too different from Bubba’s, but his arrow seems to be pointing straight up. His last two outings have been nothing short of unbelievable, striking out 14 batters in 10 innings and allowing just a single run and two hits. In fact, his last game was perfection – 6 frames without allowing a baserunner. His pitch count remains at 80 as he continues to recover from Tommy John, but at some point, the Bucs are going to have to let Jones loose. His fastball looks unbelievable, averaging nearly 100 mph and exploding out of his hand.
With Mitch Keller’s well-documented struggles, the Bucs have two great arms right now in Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft. If one or both of Chandler or Jones can become reliable, suddenly, the Pirates would be heavily favored in games more often than not.
5) The Lineup Can’t Fall Off Too Much
It seems impossible that the Pirates have the best offense in the league, but they do. Basically every bat has shown up this year up and down the order, and it has been a truly terrifying lineup to face. And yet, the Bucs are just three games over .500. One would expect this pitching staff to take a step forward going into the second half, but if that is accompanied by a step back from the lineup, then that leaves the Pirates in a mediocre spot. Nobody expects this squad to lead the league in runs again in the second half, but they have to keep up the production. Let’s highlight a few guys that are X-Factors.
Esmerlyn Valdez is perhaps the most explosive name on the Pirates right now. After an unbelievable series against the Brewers, Valdez now has 10 home runs and 27 RBI in 94 at bats. He has gone through one or two cold stretches, but as of now is deservedly entrenched in the cleanup spot. Nobody expects Valdez to keep up an OPS over 1.000 – he strikes out a ton and is carrying an unsustainable BABIP over .400. However, if Valdez can keep popping homers and producing runs as a 22 year old breakout prospect, then it takes a lot of pressure off the rest of the lineup.
Bryan Reynolds has enjoyed one of the best bounce-back campaigns in the entire league. The former All-Star experienced an uncharacteristic season last year, posting just a .720 OPS and 1.3 WAR in a full season of work – both easily career lows. Coming into this year, it was looking as though his contract might be starting to look like a rough deal for the Bucs. Reynolds has completely silenced that, already boasting a 3.6 WAR, a 141 OPS+, and a .400 OBP. The final stat is the most impressive, and it is buoyed by a new approach and more protection in the lineup. Suddenly, with Brandon Lowe, Esmerlyn Valdez, and Ryan O’Hearn around him in the lineup, Reynolds has been able to draw 62 walks already. This is already approaching a career high, as the 14.7 walk rate is 95th percentile in the league, up from 54th percentile last year. While Reynolds continues to struggle in the field, if he can keep this up with the bat, his All-Star snub will look more and more ridiculous.
Nick Gonzales has been one of the better under-the-radar stories in the MLB this year. The former first round pick had struggled throughout his first three years in the majors, and it looked as though he was simply going to be a placeholder until Konnor Griffin got called up this year. Well, Nicky G took that challenge and put any sort of those conversations to bed. He boasts the third highest batting average in the NL at .308, and has been an absolute engine in the middle of the Pirates order. Consistently slotted in at the five and six-hole spots, Gonzo has been able to help turn the order over to the big bats at the top with the help of Jake Mangum, who has enjoyed a similar year.
These are just three key surprise contributors this year. Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, and Konnor Griffin have all been superb as well. Not all these guys need to keep up their torrid pace, but if a majority of them can, then this second half is going to be one to remember.
