Some Pittsburgh Pirates fans wanted the Pirates to trade Brandon Lowe. After all, at the time of this year’s trade deadline, they were a game under .500, coming off a rough four-game series against the Cincinnati Reds in which they lost three, and 3.5 games out of the Wild Card. Trading short-term pieces in that situation isn’t uncommon for teams. However, trading Lowe was never a good idea to begin with.
At the time of writing this, Lowe is turning in a strong .255/.322/.488 triple-slash, with a .347 wOBA, and 117 wRC+. Lowe, known for his big power, already has 23 home runs through 463 plate appearances. There’s a chance he strings together his second straight 30+ homer campaign. Lowe has been a massive surprise on the defensive side of the ball. He has +8 defensive runs saved and outs above average this year. For reference, he had -20 DRS and -10 OAA at the keystone in the last three seasons. Trading Lowe not only means the Pirates would have been taking a high-quality bat out of the lineup while still within a Wild Card race, but also the best- and worst-case scenarios of keeping Lowe are not that bad to begin with.
The Best Case Scenario
The best case scenario if the Pirates keep Lowe is that he helps them make a playoff run and re-signs in the offseason. At the time of writing this, the Pirates are not out of it. Lowe has been the Pirates’ most valuable player this year by bWAR. The slugging second baseman has also been a part of multiple playoff teams, as the Tampa Bay Rays made the playoffs from 2019 through 2021 with him on the roster. Not trading him also gives the Pirates a better chance at re-signing him this offseason than they would have by trading him.
The Worst Case Scenario
The absolute worst case scenario is that the Pirates do not make any playoff run, and Lowe walks in free agency. However, there is still a silver lining if Lowe leaves in free agency. The Pirates will more than likely still extend a qualifying offer to the second baseman. If Lowe signs with another team for $50 million or more, the Pirates get a competitive balance round A pick, which is after the first round. However, even if he signs for less than $50 million, the Pirates still receive a competitive balance round B pick, which is after the second round, as they are revenue-sharing recipients.
The Pirates would have needed an offer they couldn’t possibly refuse to make it worthwhile if there was ever a chance they were moving the slugging second baseman. Lowe not only provides the team better value by keeping him, but they can still get a prospect out of it, even in the event they do not pick him back up this offseason.
