The Pittsburgh Pirates are going into 2026 with Carmen Mlodzinski in their starting rotation. They’re making the right choice by giving him another chance to start games. He was dominant in Spring Training and re-worked his pitch mix to accommodate better going through the order a second time. However, the Pirates need to be quick to pull the trigger if things go south again. Mlodzinski’s leash needs to be short going into the 2026 season.
The Pirates attempted to make Mlodzinski a starter last year. After Jared Jones went down with elbow surgery, the Bucs gave the former 2020 first-round pick a chance to start after working primarily as a reliever the previous two seasons. The results were not pretty, as Mlodzinski hoisted a 5.67 ERA over 39.2 innings pitched. The right-hander struck out just 15.6% of opponents, with a subpar 90.1 MPH exit velocity. His 1.13 HR/9 ratio was only roughly league average. Of the few positives, Mlodzinski held opponents to a 7.9% barrel rate and only dished out a free pass 6.7% of the time.
The Pirates soon moved Mlodzinski back into their bullpen, and he was next to lights out for the rest of the season. Mlodzinski took up a multi-inning relief/opener role. He pitched to the tune of a 2.12 ERA, 2.65 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP for the rest of the year. Mlodzinski’s strikeout rate improved dramatically to 25.5%. He also maintained a quality walk rate of 6.3%. The right-hander got even better at limiting quality contact and home runs. Mlodzinski’s barrel rate fell to just 4.4%, while he only had a 0.46 HR/9 ratio over his last 59.1 innings of 2025.
Mlodzinski’s splitter now looks like a more primary part of his pitch mix. He used it 27.9% of the time in Spring Training, compared to just 15.2% of the time last year during the regular season. There’s a very good reason why he is using the pitch a lot more frequently. Opponents barely touched Mlodzinski’s splitter. It induced a whiff rate of 43.1%. Of the 75 pitchers who threw at least 100 splitters in 2025, Mlodzinski induced the 13th-best whiff rate. When opponents did make contact against his splitter, it was rarely ever good contact. Mlodzinski held them to just an 85 exit velocity, and .240 xwOBA.
However, the Pirates cannot let Mlodzinski start games as long as he did last year if he continues to struggle to face batters a second time. Mlodzinski made nine starts to open 2025. The Pirates finally removed him from the rotation after his last start on May 17th. That was the Pirates’ 46th game of the year. They only went 3-6 in the games Mlodzinski started, and he allowed 3+ runs in five of his outings.
It’s not as if the Pirates didn’t have options to replace Mlodzinski, but all came with their own set of flaws. Thomas Harrington was one potential option. However, he struggled at Triple-A and didn’t look great in his brief MLB appearance earlier that year. Mike Burrows was the man who replaced Mlodzinski, but the Pirates still were limiting his workload, given that he was coming off Tommy John surgery in 2023. He missed nearly all of ‘23 and the first half of 2024. Braxton Ashcraft would also make his MLB debut about nine days after the Pirates demoted Mlodzinski. However, like Burrows, Ashcraft’s constant injuries also meant he was on a workload limit.
The Pirates have the luxury of quickly replacing Mlodzinski if he struggles. Hunter Barco is on the Major League roster. He is MLB Pipeline’s 96th best prospect, and could take Mlodzinski’s rotation spot. The Pirates also have a stacked Triple-A rotation, headlined by Wilber Dotel, Antwone Kelly, and Thomas Harrington. The Pirates added both Dotel and Kelly to the 40-man roster this past offseason. Harrington is also still part of the Bucs’ 40-man roster. They also added Jose Urquidy in the offseason, giving them another option to start games.
While the Pirates still need to have a vote of confidence in Mlodzinski, they also can’t be reactive if he struggles. They need to be proactive and give him the opportunity on a short leash. If Mlodzinski’s struggles last throughout April, it’s time they start considering who could take his spot in the rotation, and move him back into the bullpen role in which he dominated last year.
