MLB Opening Day is upon us. For many, it’s all fun and games. Good weather, good food, and great games. But for some of us, it’s all business. And the Pittsburgh Pirates are fast becoming the team that most of America is throwing cash at to make a leap this season.
Lots of money has come in on the Pirates to make the playoffs since the end of last season. This means the odds sportsbooks are giving aren’t as good if you’re looking for a high return on low investment. But there is still some opportunity in the futures bets to earn some real cash.
I am giving my gambling expertise to you for free. These are value bets you can make and take immediately to the bank. If these bets don’t hit, I will most certainly give you more picks for free.
Each sportsbook is different, so adjust your picks accordingly, but these are the Pirates plays I like. They don’t call me A Double Plus Money for nothing.
Mitch Keller 170+ and 180+ strikeouts: On my book, I have 170 at +225 and 180 at +550. Mitch has kind of become the forgotten guy in this rotation because most expected him to be on a different team. I’m not saying that couldn’t still happen. If he doesn’t do it all with the Buccos, we know the track record of pitchers leaving the Pirates and having great success. This guy struck out 210 batters in 2023. I think with the younger guns coming into form and batters focused on studying them, Mitch is going to have something to prove and is sliding under the radar. This guy is still a solid starter and the plus money on those very achievable strikeout numbers is worth the risk.
Oneil Cruz UNDER on Stolen Bases: I know this sounds crazy but listen to my logic before you call me crazy. Most books are going to have this Over/Under around 29.5 or 30.5. This seems like a no doubt OVER play for a guy who had 38 steals last season. There are three reasons why I think Oneil will go under on his steals and they are not an indictment on his base stealing acumen.
Reason 1, Oneil will have a better offense around him. A better offense means, the more people on base ahead of him which won’t allow him to steal. It also means, the Pirates may not want to risk him being thrown out on the paths with certain players that can drive him in batting behind him.
Reason 2, Oneil is noticeably heavier this season and in a good way. I honestly think this won’t have a huge impact on his speed, but I expect him to be jogging the bases more this season than stealing them. More Home Runs means less opportunities to steal.
Reason 3, Because this seems like an obvious OVER all the way, that is the exact reason you need to take the UNDER. It’s a rat line if I’ve ever seen one.
If you don’t like UNDERS, then find an OVER in the low 20s but that’s not going to give you plus money.
Paul Skenes MVP Award: Historically this is a hard award for pitchers to win. But that’s why they’re giving you plus money. Paul Skenes is America’s pitcher and everyone loves Livvy. This gives us an edge in the MVP voting. People want Skenes to win this. If he has the type of year he’s capable of, and the Pirates make the playoffs, he will certainly be the driving force. On top of that, he’s a leader of men. At +3000 odds, it would be criminal for you not to take this future.
Pirates Race to 10 Wins: The Pirates tend to always start hot out of the gate. This bet, at +3500 odds is good because it’s a near future bet. You won’t have to wait too long for this one to cash. Even though the Pirates open heavy on the road, they have the one thing that travels better than anything else; Starting Pitching. Get this one on the board and flip the winnings into some more futures or make your other slips house money.
Pennsylvania World Series Winning State: This bet means if the team that wins the World Series is in Pennsylvania , then you cash +1000. I always throw a future on the Pirates on OVER WINS, MAKE PLAYOFFS, WIN DIVISION, WIN NL, and WIN WORLD SERIES. The juicy part of this bet, is if the Pirates don’t win the WS, then you have a double chance with the Phillies. I hate Philly, but they are always in the mix. This gives you a little bit of insurance. If you go straight with Buccos only because you refuse to root for Philly, then nothing but respect for you.
Bubba Chandler Rookie of the Year: This dude has a swagger about him. If our staff were a mullet and Paul Skenes is business in the front, then Bubba is the party in the back. I think he has a friendly competition to match Paul Skenes’ career. And at +1800, this is a solid value bet. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he has the best pitcher on the planet, and a solid veteran there to help him get outs. Last year he had his first taste of the show, some ups and downs, but this year Bubba is poised to be a bona fide stud.
Those are my plays as of now. I’ll be sure to hand out some more picks throughout the season. Take all the free money I’m giving you and have a ball this season. Let’s Go Bucs and Hoist the Cone!
