Pittsburgh Pirates’ superstar Paul Skenes feels like he was a robot built to throw baseballs very hard, and very accuratley. He’s been as close to automatically dominant as one can get. However, his last two starts have made him look human. The 2025 Cy Young winner and 2024 Rookie of the Year has allowed nine earned runs over his last ten innings of work. These two outings are not the only games Skenes struggled in this year. However, Skenes showing some humanity on the mound doesn’t mean it’s time to worry about the right-hander.
Even with Skenes’ recent slump, you still have to remember we’re still talking about one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers. His 0.82 WHIP is still the best among any pitcher in baseball. He is also tied with fellow Louisiana State University alumni Kevin Gausman for the lowest walk rate in the sport. Skenes’ 7.22 K:BB ratio is yet another number he leads all MLB pitchers in.
If that wasn’t enough to convince you that Skenes is still utterly dominant, he ranks among some of the best in many other numbers. His 24.1% K-BB% is the 6th best among qualified starters. He is holding opponents to a .183 batting average, which is the fourth lowest. His 4.5% barrel rate comes in at the 87th percentile and is the fifth lowest mark among SPs. Plus, he is in the 75th percentile of exit velocity (87.4 MPH) and the 84th percentile of strikeout percentage (28%).
Some may see his slight decrease in fastball velocity as a reason for concern. He is sitting at 97 MPH with his four-seamer, compared to 98.2 MPH last year. However, Skenes is still in the 98th percentile of fastball run value. There have been 125 pitchers who have thrown 200+ four-seam fastballs this year. His .253 opponents xwOBA is the tenth lowest, which is even lower than his .283 xwOBA with his fastball last year. The 28.6% whiff rate he has induced is roughly the same as last year at 29.6%. None of the other pitches Skenes uses with regularity has lost any velocity, either.
If that isn’t enough to convince you that Skenes is fine, remember that he also had similar numbers at this point last year. His ERA at the end of May was slightly lower at 2.15, though he struck out fewer batters (26.1% K%) and walked more (6.1%) while getting hit harder (88.6 MPH exit velocity, 4.6% barrel rate). Skenes allowed multiple runs in five of his first 12 outings. Meanwhile, he has allowed multiple runs in just four of his first 11 games this year.
There is zero reason for anyone to worry about Skenes right now. Sure, he had two rough games, but that’s going to happen, even to the most dominant pitchers. Pitchers like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber didn’t start their second Cy Young seasons off scorching hot either. He still has one of the most effective fastballs in the league despite losing about a tick of velocity, and hasn’t lost any zip off of his secondaries. Even with his ‘cold’ start to the 2026 season, he is still among the best pitchers in many important statistical categories. There is a better chance Skenes wins a second Cy Young award than continuing to struggle this year.
