Pittsburgh Pirates' right-hander Jared Jones is nearing his return to the mound. According to General Manager Ben Cherington, Jones is hitting 100 MPH in extended games and will make his first rehab start on Wednesday. The Bucs plan on building Jones up as they would in Spring Training. However, Jones' return can fix the biggest issue currently plaguing the Pirates' pitching staff.
As of right now, that issue is the fifth starter role. Carmen Mlodzinski is currently penciled into that role. Although Mlodzinski has looked better as a starter this year compared to last year, many of the same issues are still plaguing him. He is still struggling to get through the order twice. The first time he faces opponents in a game, he holds them to a 2.25 ERA, with just a .279 wOBA. However, the second time he faces them, his ERA shoots up to 4.91, and batters own a .343 wOBA against him.
Jones proved himself as a solid starting pitcher in his 2024 rookie campaign. He pitched 121.1 innings, working to a 4.14 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP. Jones put up an above-average 26.2% K% and 7.7% BB%. Home runs and hard contact were his Achilles heel, with a 1.33 HR/9 ratio, and were below the 30th percentile of both exit velocity (89.6 MPH) and barrel rate (9.8%). ERA estimators also liked Jones' body of work, with a 3.78 SIERA and 3.72 xFIP.
That set Jones up as a key member of the Pirates' 2025 rotation. Unfortunately, his season came to an end before it even started. Jones suffered an elbow injury during Spring Training. He opened the year on the injured list, but would eventually undergo internal brace surgery in May. The surgery put him on a 10-12 wait until he was ready to go again.
Putting Jones in a piggyback role with Mlodzinski could be a very dominant duo at the back of the rotation. Jones was also a whole lot better the first time he faced opponents. He had a 2.77 ERA, with a 29.3% K%, and 9.1% BB% the first time through the order. While his BB% dropped to 7.1% the second time he faced batters in a game, his K% also fell to 21.9%, and his ERA rose to 4.02. Jones also will likely have an innings limit this year, so using him for only 2-4 innings at a time will preserve his workload.
So far, only one of Mlodzinski's five starts this year has gone at least five innings. His only outing that has gone at least six frames was when an opener was used before he came into the game. Once Jones returns, he can help mitigate Mlodzinski's struggles when he faces the order a second time. Given how good both are the first time through the order, the Pirates' fifth spot of the rotation could end up becoming a strength.
