The Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching hasn’t been as dominant as many expected it to be. A lot of fans want to start pinning the blame on the team’s new pitching coach, Bill Murphy. The Pirates brought Murphy to replace incumbent Oscar Marin. However, while fans may feel the staff has regressed, there are many cases where this isn’t true; regression was always on the horizon, regardless of the coach, or expectations were too high.
The Pirates’ staff, in general, is pitching just as well as last year. Last year, Pirates hurlers owned a 3.76 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, and 4.03 SIERA. They had a 22% K% and a 7.9% BB%, resulting in a 14.2% K-BB%. They held opposing batters to an 88.9 MPH exit velocity and a 7.4% barrel percentage. The Pirates’ pitching staff owned a FanGraphs Stuff+ of 100.
At the time of writing this, this year’s Pirates staff has a 4.16 ERA, but many other stats have not changed very much. They still have a near-identical 3.80 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, and 3.89 SIERA so far this season. Their walk rate is slightly higher than last season, coming in at 9.5%; however, their K% has also risen to 23.6%. That results in a K-BB% of 14.2%, just a 0.1% increase from last year. They aren’t getting hit much harder either, with an 89.2 MPH exit velocity and 8.2% barrel rate. Pirates pitchers have a combined 101 Stuff+. The Pirates’ pitchers are a lot better in many stats now compared to this point in 2025. On June 11, 2025, they had a 4.22 xFIP, 4.25 SIERA, and 12% K-BB%. The difference in ERA is small enough to chalk up to the Pirates’ defense.
Some regression was bound to happen, regardless of the coach. Dennis Santana dropped in a lot of metrics from 2024 to 2025. His K% went from 29.1% to 22.2%, his exit velocity rose from 84.5 MPH to 89 MPH, his barrel rate skyrocketed from 1.9% to 10.5%, and his FanGraphs Stuff+ dropped from 103 to 92. Considering he has only continued to lose velocity this year, there isn’t much Murphy could do to counteract the velocity loss. Isaac Mattson threw his 93-94 MPH fastball about 80% of the time last year. One could argue that it was up to Murphy to help him lean on his secondaries more, but that’s exactly why the Pirates sent Mattson to Triple-A. He is now relying on more breaking and off-speed stuff.
Anyone who thinks Paul Skenes is regressing under Murphy simply had too high expectations. He is the first pitcher with multiple seasons where he had an ERA+ over 210 in 20+ starts since Pedro Martinez. Only he, Martinez, Walter Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Greg Maddux have ever achieved this. Skenes would be the first pitcher ever to string together three straight seasons with 20+ starts and an ERA+ over 200. He currently has a 151 ERA+, which puts him in the same range as last year’s AL Cy Young runner-up, Garrett Crochet, at 155.
There are also a lot of Pirates pitchers having good years. Braxton Ashcraft is having a very successful season in his first full year out of a Major League rotation. Wilber Dotel has had very few issues going from the minor leagues to the Major Leagues. Evan Sisk has looked much better than last year. Jared Jones has come off the IL with very little issue after missing all of 2025. Carmen Mlodzinski also pitched solid as a starter before they moved him back to the bullpen. Both Gregory Soto and Mason Montgomery have also pitched better compared to last season.
Now granted, it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows. Mitch Keller has struggled badly recently. Bubba Chandler’s control is all over the place, which is a shame after he had a sub-5% walk rate in his brief 31.1 innings last season. Hunter Barco didn’t hit the ground running either and was subsequently optioned to Triple-A because of his early-season struggles out of the bullpen.
Generally speaking, the Pirates’ pitching staff has pitched as many should have expected them to. They’re currently pitching just as well as last year in many aspects, and there are very few pitchers who are truly regressing without reason, despite many claiming the entire staff has regressed. To pin the blame on Murphy is absurd. He has done what he can with the Pirates’ current staff.
