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Grading The Camilo Doval Trade For The Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates made their first notable move of this year’s trade deadline, acquiring hard-throwing right-handed pitcher Camilo Doval from the New York Yankees. In exchange, the Pirates sent the Yankees catching prospect Omar Alfonzo and minor league outfielder/second baseman Luis Cruz. The Pirates add a much-needed bullpen arm, so how did they do overall in their first big trade as we approach the deadline?


Camilo Doval Is A High-Risk/High-Reward Pitcher


Doval has pitched 39.2 innings this year, working to a 4.54 ERA, 4.61 FIP, and 1.41 WHIP. The right-hander has struck out 21.9% of opponents, with a 10.1% walk rate. Doval has also struggled to limit home runs and hard contact, with a 1.36 HR/9 ratio and a bottom-seventh-percentile exit velocity of 90.9 MPH. However, he is in the 97th percentile of ground ball rate, sitting at 57.1%, and his 6.8% barrel rate is in the top 63rd percentile of pitchers this year.


Doval throws hard, sitting at 98.6 MPH with his sinker. His 3.73 SIERA and 3.87 xFIP suggest some bad luck is affecting his performance. He also has some interesting splits. Doval owns a 7.08 ERA, with a 5.75 FIP, and 1.82 WHIP when pitching in Yankee Stadium. However, when he takes the mound as a guest, he has a much more digestible 1.86 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and 0.98 WHIP. Doval is also under contract through 2027.


While the last few years haven’t been Doval’s best, he once looked like one of baseball’s most promising young closers. From 2021 through 2023, Doval pitched to a 2.77 ERA, 2.97 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP through his first 162.1 innings of his career. Walks always plagued Doval, as he had a 9.6% walk rate, but he also struck out 30.2% of batters faced. He also held batters to a 0.61 HR/9 ratio, with an 87.4 MPH exit velocity and a 5.3% barrel percentage.


Pirates Give Up Two Prospects


Of the two prospects the Pirates gave up, Omar Alfonzo is the closest to being considered the headliner. The catcher/first baseman has consistently shown good power throughout the minor leagues. This year, he is batting .239/.338/.420 with a .338 wOBA and a 100 wRC+ at Double-A Altoona. Alfonzo has gone yard nine times over 241 plate appearances, with a .180 isolated slugging percentage. He is also walking at a 12% clip.


However, Alfonzo has struggled to make contact at a consistent rate since reaching the upper levels of the minor leagues. His strikeout rate over 434 Double-A plate appearances is 30.2%. This year, he owns a 31.6% called and swinging strike rate. Alfonzo has a sub-70% contact rate as well, sitting at 67.5%. He has a strong enough arm and solid defensive skills to stick behind the plate long term. Alfonzo ranked as the Pirates’ 28th best prospect per Baseball America, but 17th on MLB Pipeline


Luis Cruz is a recent international signee by the Pirates. Cruz signed for $50K out of the Dominican Republic in January 2025. Cruz has spent all of 2026 at the Dominican Summer League, where he has hit .313/.460/.396 with a 133 wRC+ over 64 plate appearances. In that time, Cruz has struck out just twice and has drawn 12 walks, leading to an impressive 6:1 BB:K ratio. The young outfielder is just 18, and won’t turn 19 until next June. He was praised for his bat-to-ball skills and projectable frame (listed at 6’1”, 155 lbs) at the time of signing.


Final Overview


The Pirates are definitely taking some risk by acquiring Doval. He hasn’t been a lights-out reliever consistently since 2023. However, he still comes with some interesting peripherals. His impressive velocity, ability to keep the ball on the ground, his home/away splits, and solid ERA estimator numbers are worth taking a look at, especially given his resume of work.


The Pirates are also not giving up much to give Doval a look either. Alfonzo has fallen prospect rankings the last year, as he has struggled to keep up with Double-A pitching. His lack of contact skills also limits his power upside. Cruz is more or less a lottery ticket at this point. He won’t turn 20 until 2028. He has hit well in the DSL, but it is still the lowest level of the minor leagues. It may be another three years until he reaches Triple-A, let alone the Major Leagues. They both have upside, but also risk, given Alfonzo’s weaknesses and Cruz’s age.


Final Grade: B

 

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