Spring Training is on the doorstep. The final offseason dominoes are toppling. We are starting to get a real sense of what this MLB season is shaping up to be. While a few more moves could still be made, we basically know what the Pirates’ roster is going to look like this season, which allows us to start dreaming about what a magical season could look like for this team. While a team can get to the postseason in any number of ways, here are five general things that need to happen for the Buccos to break their playoff drought and bring playoff baseball back to PNC Park.
1. Paul Skenes continues his utter domination
There might not be a single soul left among MLB fans that doesn’t know Paul Skenes is amazing. And yet, those same people might not realize just how good he is. After arguably the best rookie season ever for a starting pitcher, Skenes was just as good in 2025, posting essentially the same numbers but over an entire season. These numbers aren’t just great; they are all-time. In fact, through 55 starts, he has the lowest ERA of all time in the live-ball era at 1.96. He has surrendered only 70 earned runs in these 55 games combined and has never given up more than seven hits in a game.
I could list stats all day, but the reality is that Skenes is the best pitcher in the league and has the potential to be one of the best of all time. And, to put it bluntly, the Pirates need him to be. With an improved offense this year, the Buccos can hope to win more of Skenes’ starts where he blanks the other team, stacking up wins behind these performances. He doesn’t need to keep the superhuman mark of an ERA under 2.00, but anything under 2.50 would be crucial to a Pirates postseason berth. Even though this seems like a laughable ask—to expect a Cy Young–caliber season—at this point, Skenes has earned those expectations and seems more than capable of delivering.
2. The new lineup additions provide a power surge
A lot can be said against the Pirates’ lineup last year, but the biggest weakness was the squad’s inability to put the ball over the fence. The Bucs not only hit the fewest home runs in the league last year, but they were over 30 dingers behind the 29th-place team. Realizing this, the front office made it a priority to inject some juice into the lineup this year, acquiring two All-Stars in Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn. Lowe is perhaps the best power-hitting second baseman in the league, and O’Hearn is also a threat to pop 20-plus over the fence.
This sort of power in the lineup could grant some much-needed protection to Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Spencer Horwitz, who had to essentially put the offense completely on their backs last year. Specifically, Cruz struggled mightily when pitchers realized they simply did not have to give him any good pitches to hit. A deeper lineup could allow him to truly break out in 2026.
Another sneaky name to look out for is Jhostynxon García, who the Bucs got back in a trade from the Red Sox for Johan Oviedo. He’s hit over 20 homers in each of the last two seasons in the minors and could provide the back end of this lineup with some stability from the right side of the plate. While the Pirates are not a team built on boppers, it is vital that they hit more balls over the fence this year to support their top-notch pitching staff.
3. A young right-handed bat takes a leap
Much has been made about the Pirates’ struggles to develop hitting prospects in the last decade, and those criticisms came to a head last year. The first overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, Henry Davis, was seen as a surefire masher who might not have a defensive home. Fast-forward five years, and he is now a borderline elite defensive catcher who struggles mightily with the bat.
Jared Triolo has a similar profile, winning a Gold Glove in 2024 and posting another great year with the glove last year. And yet, his OPS+ over the last two seasons has been 78, meaning he is 22% worse than a league-average hitter.
Nick Gonzalez is a similar story. The contact-first middle infielder and former first-round pick looked poised for a breakout last year but regressed heavily and posted an OBP under .300. If the Pirates want their lineup to have depth, they need someone to step up from the right side, as four of their top five hitters swing exclusively from the left side. These three young hitters have all been disappointing with the bat in their careers, but if one of them could take a leap, this lineup suddenly looks far less top-heavy.
4. At least two wild-card arms put it together
Sneakily, the Pirates lost a good amount of pitching depth this offseason. With Johan Oviedo and Mike Burrows departing via trade, the Bucs are left with only two starters who made over 13 big-league starts last season. These two are Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller, who are extremely dependable, but beyond that, some unproven arms have to put together good seasons for this squad to have a chance.
Luckily, there are a lot of dice to be rolled. Bubba Chandler is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and looked electric in his cup of coffee last year. Carmen Mlodzinski and Braxton Ashcraft are young swingmen who have dominated as relievers and have the potential to be stretched out. Hunter Barco rocketed up prospect lists last year and is now seen as a top-100 guy across the league. Tom Harrington looks to bounce back from a rough 2025 in the minors and return to his 2024 self as a control artist in the big leagues. José Urquidy was brought in on a big-league deal to provide dependable veteran innings. And, most important, stud Jared Jones will return from Tommy John surgery early in the season and look to get back to making hitters look foolish.
With this many darts to throw, it seems increasingly likely at least a few will hit, and if that happens, this might be the best rotation in the big leagues.
5. The team finds an identity
All the parts of this checklist so far have been centered on performance and projection, but there is one undeniable thing that needs to happen for the Buccos to compete this year—they must figure out who they are as a team. To find the best example of this, you don’t have to look too far: the 2013–15 Pirates wore their grit on their sleeves, winning games with hustle, clutch hitting, and an energy-filled bullpen.
Recent underdog success stories have also had clear identities. The 2023 Diamondbacks were full of team speed. The 2025 Blue Jays put the ball in play no matter what. The 2021 Giants relied more on matchups and role players than any team ever. All of these squads were different, but each was united around a central motif that carried them.
What motif that could be for the ’26 Pirates is theirs to define, but the stage has been set for an energized team with the addition of multiple clubhouse leaders this offseason.
When you think about what it would take for a Pirates playoff run this year, it seems far-fetched. And yet, these goals don’t seem all that unlikely. Don’t be surprised if your 2026 Pittsburgh Pirates put it together and make the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
