Fan Graphs has the Buccos at 1% to make the playoffs. When you hear that number it can put a bad feeling in your stomach. But to be completely honest, I feel encouraged. Below, I have compiled a list of things that have happened that had worse odds than the Pirates making the 2026 Postseason.
Winning the Powerball: Roughly 1 in 175 million. This equates to a .00000057% of happening. But every time, someone wins it. Eventually. Allegedly.
Being Struck By Lightning: Everyone knows someone or knows someone who knows someone that got hit by one of Zeus’s fastballs. The chances are roughly 1 in 12,000 or .0008%
Hitting a Hole In One: Again, everyone knows someone who has one of these. If you factor in the people who claim they did it and are lying, the odds get even better. 1 in 12,500. .0008% again.
It’s not as bleak and somber as people would have you believe.
The fact that you are currently reading this is proof that the Pirates have a great shot of making the playoffs. Or at least not as bad as everyone is making it out to be.
Being Born: The odds of you existing are virtually zero percent. But here you are, being optimistic, trying to cling to any strand of hope you can that the Pirates will be the miracle team of 2026.
Maybe these are a bit too far removed from baseball. Other than the hole in one, a person doesn’t even have control over these events. Which again, makes me feel better about our chances. There is no law that states you can’t go on a run. Just look at the Red Sox this year, or the Mets in 1969. Or a host of other teams that people counted out.
But the key is, you can’t play bad and expect other teams ahead of you to follow suit. You need to take advantage of opportunities, and if they aren’t there, then you create your own.
This could be a team that we create a fun nickname and talk about twenty years from now. But they need to get hotter than Brennaman’s mic. And they can do it.
Let me do the Scott Steiner math for you. There’s a 1% chance of making the playoffs now, but there’s a 0% chance if you don’t get hot. Which is 100% less than the 1% we currently have. If we take it to St Louis, that’s a 1% increase in daily probability which equates to a 300% above 1% at half the rate.
Follow?
Bottom line, I am choosing to hold out hope until we are mathematically eliminated. Because I’m like that. Hoist the colors. You heard me. The colors.
