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Checking in on soon-to-be Rule 5 eligible Pirates prospects

The minor league season is in full swing. The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the best farm systems, with plenty of notable prospects. However, a handful of notable Pirates prospects entered 2026 needing to prove themselves to earn Rule 5 draft protection. Any prospect who was signed at 18 or younger in 2022 or earlier, or 19 or older signed in 2023 or earlier, is eligible for the 2026 Rule 5 draft. There have certainly been some interesting cases made throughout the first month of the minor league system.


Khristian Curtis


Khristian Curtis was selected in the 12th round by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2023. He made his way up to Double-A last year, but spent most of 2025 at High-A Greensboro. Between the two levels, he tallied 110.2 innings pitched, a 3.90 ERA, 25.1% K%, and 9.7% walk rate. Curtis also only allowed a dozen home runs. Curtis was sent back to Altoona to open 2026, and his 6.35 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story.


Curtis has struck out 30 opponents in 21.2 innings, amounting to a 33% K%. The right-hander has also only handed out a free pass 6.6% of the time. His WHIP is only 1.11. Curtis has gotten snakebit by the longball, with a 1.66 HR/9 ratio. However, an 18.2% HR:FB ratio suggests an unsustainable home run rate. 


Curtis is quickly becoming one of the Pirates’ best pitching prospects. He has a myriad of usable pitches. According to Baseball America, four of Curtis’ five offerings project as above-average or better. That includes his fastball (which grades out as plus), slider, cutter, and change-up (all grade out as above-average). Just his curveball is considered average. Just Baseball recently ranked Curtis as the Pirates’ seventh-best prospect. Based on what he’s done so far, Curtis has pretty much cemented a spot on the Pirates’ 40-man roster.


Termarr Johnson


Termarr Johnson was the Pirates’ first-round pick in 2022. Coming out of high school, Johnson stood as one of, if not the best, hitter of his draft class. Johnson spent 2025 at Double-A Altoona, where he batted .272/.363/.382 with a .348 wOBA and 118 wRC+. The middle infield prospect struck out at a career-low rate of 18.5% while posting a career-high 75.1% contact rate. Johnson has always walked a ton, and 2025 was no exception, with an 11.7% BB%. Unfortunately, he only hit nine home runs with a .111 isolated slugging percentage, marking the first time he hit fewer than a dozen long balls.


Johnson’s solid performance at Altoona earned him a promotion to Triple-A to begin 2026. However, he hasn’t taken off as many expected. It has only been 102 plate appearances, but he has only had 11 hits, none of which have left the park. Johnson has walked 15 times, but has also gone down on strikes 23 times. His exit velocity throughout this small sample size is just 83.7 MPH.


Johnson’s bat has not developed as hoped. Both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline projected Johnson with a 70-grade hit tool and a 60-grade power tool, with enough speed and fielding prowess to stick at an up-the-middle infield position. If Johnson doesn’t pick it up soon, the Pirates may leave what was once one of their best prospects available in the Rule 5 draft.


Lonnie White Jr.


Lonnie White Jr. was one of the Pirates’ many high school draft picks from the 2021 draft. Taken with their second round competitive balance pick, White Jr. hit the ground running in 2023. He put up an .879 OPS and 139 wRC+ between the Florida Complex League and A-Ball Bradenton. He was then sent to High-A Greensboro to start 2024, but struggled badly with just a 75 wRC+ and 34.4% K%. While White Jr. experienced somewhat of a rebound at Greensboro in 2025, his 111 wRC+ wasn’t anything to write home about, and his K% only climbed further to 35.9%.


However, White Jr. kicked off 2026 in a big way. In his first 104 plate appearances, the young outfielder slashed .298/.413/.595 with a 155 wRC+ at Greensboro before getting promoted to Double-A Altoona. After striking out more than a third of the time with a sub-65% contact rate in 2024 and 2025, White Jr. went down on strikes just 21.2% of the time with a 70.4% contact percentage. Plus, he upped his walk rate to 16.5%.


White Jr.’s case is interesting. How he fares at Altoona will determine if he gets a 40-man roster spot. Double-A is the biggest test for minor leaguers. However, if he hits at Altoona, the Pirates will almost have to give him a roster spot. White Jr. is starting to show some upside with the bat in his biggest test yet as a professional, while still showing off his speed, fielding prowess, and athleticism, which will help him become something more than a good depth outfielder.


Yordany De Los Santos


The Bucs signed Yordany De Los Santos out of the Dominican Republic during the 2021-2022 offseason. At the time, De Los Santos ranked as a top 15 international prospect in his class. The infielder crushed Dominican Summer League and Florida Complex League pitching, leading to him reaching A-Ball Bradenton by just his age-18 season in 2023. However, he stalled out at Bradenton over 2024 and 2025. 


De Los Santos finally reached High-A this year, and he looked very good throughout his first two games. He had three hits, including a home run. De Los Santos also only struck out twice with a walk over nine plate appearances. However, De Los Santos’ season has been on hold after he suffered an injury. He’s now starting his rehab at Bradenton and went two-for-four with a home run in his first game back on April 29.


De Los Santos is in his age-21 season. If his hot start to the year is the real deal, he may reach Double-A Altoona well before the end of the year. While he struggled to get to Greensboro, he’s looked very good, at least throughout his first three games of 2026. Continued performance may force the Pirates to include him on their 40-man roster next winter.


Axiel Plaz


The Pirates signed Axiel Plaz from the same international class as De Los Santos. The catcher/first base prospect reached A-Ball Bradenton by the time he was just 19. He started the year red hot, batting .262/.348/.450 with a 122 wRC+. Plaz only struck out 20.2% of the time with a 9% walk rate. Plaz showed off plenty of raw power, with an outstanding 92.9 MPH exit velocity. However, Plaz would miss about two months from June 17 through August 18. When Plaz returned, he went to Greensboro, but he only had three hits over 42 plate appearances. At the very least, he drew five walks and went down on strikes just six times.


The Pirates sent Plaz back to Greensboro to start the 2026 season. While he is still only in his age-20 campaign, he is already pushing for a promotion to Double-A Altoona. Plaz has 27 hits over his first 86 plate appearances of the season. Nearly a third of his base knocks have been for extra bases, with three home runs and five doubles. Although Plaz’s walk rate is down to 7%, he is making plenty of contact with just an 18.6% K% and 76% contact percentage.


Plaz currently ranks among the Pirates’ top 30 prospects on both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, both of whom rank him 20th. Teams have only taken seven catchers in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 draft since 2010. Given Plaz’s age and position, the Pirates may be able to sneak him through the draft. However, if Plaz can keep up a high contact rate and low strikeout rate while maintaining the raw power he’s shown, the Pirates will be put into a tough situation, especially if he continues to do so after reaching Double-A.

 

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