If there was one question about Bubba Chandler as he entered his 2026 rookie season, it was how good his control would be. The right-hander only walked 3.2% of batters he faced when the Pittsburgh Pirates called him up in September 2025. However, it was a small sample size of 31.1 innings, and his last dozen starts at Triple-A prior to his promotion yielded a 13.3% walk rate.
Chandler’s control concerns were definitely confirmed for his first handful of outings in 2026. Throughout his first 42 innings of the season, the top prospect had a walk rate of 16.4%. It also did not help that his K% sat at just 19%. Combined with the 1.50 HR/9 ratio and 9.1% barrel rate, Chandler’s ERA sat at 5.14 throughout his first nine outings of the year.
There were no questions about Chandler’s stuff. His fastball sat at 98.4 MPH, and his FanGraphs Stuff+ came in at 104. However, batters were generally not fooled by his quality pitches. His chase rate was 28.8%, compared to the league average rate of 29.9%. Opponents were making plenty of contact outside the zone as well, with a 68.1% out of zone contact rate (compared to the league average mark of 59.2%).
However, it seems that Chandler has turned things around. Over his last five outings and 26 innings of work, he owns a walk rate of only 8.9%. Not only is he walking far fewer opponents, but he is also getting strikeouts at a much higher rate of 28.6%. Inducing soft contact is another positive, with a 4.3% barrel rate. His 4.15 ERA may not look great on the surface, but his 2.41 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, along with his 2.96 xERA and 3.40 SIERA, suggest that the small sample size was plagued by bad luck.
The good news is Chandler hasn’t had to sacrifice any of his pitch quality for the increase in location. He is still sitting at 98.3 MPH with his fastball. His Stuff+ has improved to 107. The biggest jump is in Chandler’s Location+. Before this recent improvement, Chandler sat at 100. Now, he is up to 109 in his last five games. That improvement in stuff and location has made Chandler a lot more deceptive to opposing hitters.
Batters are swinging outside the zone far more often, with a 32.9% o-swing rate. When they chase, they’re making far less contact as well, with a o-contact rate of 50.6%. Chandler’s swinging strike rate has risen dramatically, from just 9.2% to now 13%.
Chandler has made a handful of changes to his game. He has also lowered his arm angle slightly from 47.9 degrees to 45.2 degrees. Chandler is relying much less on his fastball and more on his sinker. His fastball % went from 54.1% to 40.8%, while his sinker usage rate has risen from just 2.3% to 13.2%. Chandler is also using his slider more frequently, going from 21.6% to 26.7%.
There was never much of a question whether Chandler had the stuff to be a good starter. It was always a question if he could control it well enough, and right now, it looks like he’s harnessed it. Hopefully, he continues to make strides in the right direction. The next step is to get him to go deeper into games. He has gone six innings just once this year; however, with fewer walks and more strikes, that should come very soon.
