Before the season began, I wrote a piece titled “Five Things That Must Go Right for a 2026 Pirates Playoff Berth.” It came out right before Spring Training while hype was building for the season, but expectations were still tempered. A playoff berth seemed unlikely, but possible. Well, as of now, the Pirates are sitting at a 62.1 percent chance to make the playoffs and have received contributions up and down the roster. Let’s see how well they have done meeting these goals and how relevant those goals have been.
“Paul Skenes Continues His Utter Domination”
Shockingly, of all the goals, this is the one that has been realized the least. While Skenes has flashed absolute brilliance in the majority of his starts, he has also had perhaps the three worst outings of his career, leaving his ERA at a flat 2.89. In a vacuum, that is nearly a run worse than in either of his previous two seasons, but in reality, the Buccos are winning more Skenes starts. While he has struggled in a few outings, he has also all but guaranteed victory in many others. And despite all the talk about his ERA ballooning, his WHIP currently sits at .857, by far a career-best mark. While this goal may not be passing with flying colors, Skenes has obviously still been fantastic.
“The New Lineup Additions Provide a Power Surge”
This article was written before the acquisition of Marcell Ozuna, so it was focused exclusively on Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn, with a small shoutout to The Password. Last year, the Pirates were last in the majors in home runs, finishing more than 30 behind the 29th-place team. This year, they are eleventh in home runs and eighth in slugging percentage—a massive jump. Lowe and O’Hearn have already combined for 23 home runs, and this increased lineup protection has led to Oneil Cruz being on track to hit well over 30 himself.
“A Young Right-Handed Bat Takes a Leap”
This blurb called out Jared Triolo, Henry Davis, and Nick Gonzales, asking for just one of them to take a leap. Well, Triolo and Davis have been miserable at the plate again, but Nick Gonzales has ascended to near All-Star level. Nicky G has completely redefined his approach at the plate, going all-in on contact and productive at-bats. While this has decreased his power output, it has been more than worth it, as he ranks sixth in all of MLB with a .312 batting average. On top of that, he has been an above-average defender at his new home at third base and has become anchored in the middle of the Pirates' order as one of their best run producers and most clutch hitters.
“At Least Two Wild-Card Arms Put It Together”
This one is so-so. Of the Pirates' starting pitchers not named Paul Skenes or Mitch Keller, only one has been great. Yet Braxton Ashcraft almost makes up for the rest by himself. Ashcraft has been one of the best pitchers in the National League, posting a 2.77 ERA while consistently working deep into games. Yes, Mlodzinski, Chandler, and Urquidy have been frustrating, but Jared Jones’ return last weekend makes this easier to stomach.
“The Team Finds an Identity”
This is clearly a different type of goal from the others and perhaps the hardest to measure. And yet, the Bucs have figured out a style of play that works and have leaned into it heavily, especially over the last few weeks.
In previous years, the team's best hitters were reliant on pulling fly balls out of the yard—an all-or-nothing approach that was supremely frustrating to watch. It felt like the team constantly stranded runners with untimely strikeouts and simply could not push runs across. This year feels completely different.
Yes, the team features some big bats at the top of the order in Lowe, Cruz, and Reynolds, all of whom strike out a fair amount. However, those bats are complemented by patient gap hitters in O’Hearn and Spencer Horwitz, who has settled into the leadoff spot most days. Then, the bottom of the lineup is more small-ball oriented, as Konnor Griffin, Jake Mangum, and Nick Gonzales look to get guys on and move them over before the thumpers come up.
This has led to the Buccos giving their starting pitching a lead in an absurd number of games, and for the most part, it has been a winning formula.
Overall
Overall, it is clear that this Pirates team has a few flaws that fans have been frustrated by. However, when you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, these were five goals that once seemed unreasonable. At least, it seemed unreasonable to assume they would all be achieved.
And yet, here we stand on June 3—all five goals have been met to some degree, and many have been exceeded.
Let’s Go Bucs!
